Amid the US economic health, there are many global economic data reports this week and the non-farm payroll is not left out.
Investors and traders are keen mainly on job data, ISM manufacturing PMI, Bank of Canada (BOC) rate statement, JOLTS job openings, ADP Non-farm employment change, unemployment claims, and ISM services PMI.
All eyes are on those reports due to their high impact.
Expecting Economic Point of View: Key Topics And Events
- ISM Manufacturing, Services
You will remember that the ISM (The Institute for Supply Management) reports are released every first week of the month.
If the current data is above 50.0 it shows industry growth and then, below 50.0 shows smaller in size. This report will also affect the NFP report positively or weaker come Friday.
Forex traders watch closely the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY- Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Resolve
On July 24th, 2024 the Bank of Canada (BOC) reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
Compared to other Central Banks' rates which are the Federal Reserve's 5.50% (USD), Reserve Bank of England's (BOE) 5.00% (GBP), Bank of Canada's (BOC) 4.50% (CAD), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 4.35% (AUD), European Central Bank (ECB) 4.25% (EUR), Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.25% (CHF), Bank of Japan (BOJ) <0.25% respectively.
We are expecting Bank of Canada policy rates to cut further to 4.25% by September 4th, 2024, according to the report. This report would attract more investors and strengthen CAD.- US Employment reports (jobless claim, ADP and NFP)
Jerome Powell broke the news at Jackson Hole last week, which resulted in a rate cut saying, "inflation had declined significantly" and secondly, that "the labor market is no longer overheated".
Although, traders always see this report as a lagging indicator.
Unemployed people are a good signal to the overall economic health, with the reason that consumer spending corresponds with the labor market circumstances.
Traders should watch employment figures this week, especially the non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Meanwhile, there could be a notable drop in the NFP figure and also rising unemployment, USD bears take note. There is also a lineup of job openings, cuts, ISM PMIs, ADP employment, and unemployment claims data.Technical Analysis
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD posed a peak reset on Monday last week and confirmed its mid-week reversal on Wednesday.
The pair then further completed a three-day cycle on Friday and is currently in level 3. This drop has signaled a possible reversal of the trend.
Current Week in Focus
We expect the price to reverse on EUR/USD, and possibly reset when it gets to the 200 Exponential Moving Average due to the upcoming high-impact news during the week.
We've already identified the peak formation low of the week. The 5/13 Exponential Moving Average has crossed over showing a peak formation confirmation.
The 13/50 Exponential Moving Average has also crossed over showing a possible peak lock. Do not forget that news can mess up a trade setup.
TDI Subgraph
TDI has not shown a clear confirmation of the possible reversal of the trend. Swing traders take note.
Conclusion
Let us know in the comment box below your expectations based on the economic data and the bank rate cut. You can also check our previous post on EUR/USD analysis.
- Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Resolve
On July 24th, 2024 the Bank of Canada (BOC) reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
Compared to other Central Banks' rates which are the Federal Reserve's 5.50% (USD), Reserve Bank of England's (BOE) 5.00% (GBP), Bank of Canada's (BOC) 4.50% (CAD), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 4.35% (AUD), European Central Bank (ECB) 4.25% (EUR), Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.25% (CHF), Bank of Japan (BOJ) <0.25% respectively.
We are expecting Bank of Canada policy rates to cut further to 4.25% by September 4th, 2024, according to the report. This report would attract more investors and strengthen CAD.- US Employment reports (jobless claim, ADP and NFP)
Jerome Powell broke the news at Jackson Hole last week, which resulted in a rate cut saying, "inflation had declined significantly" and secondly, that "the labor market is no longer overheated".
Although, traders always see this report as a lagging indicator.
Unemployed people are a good signal to the overall economic health, with the reason that consumer spending corresponds with the labor market circumstances.
Traders should watch employment figures this week, especially the non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Meanwhile, there could be a notable drop in the NFP figure and also rising unemployment, USD bears take note. There is also a lineup of job openings, cuts, ISM PMIs, ADP employment, and unemployment claims data.Technical Analysis
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD posed a peak reset on Monday last week and confirmed its mid-week reversal on Wednesday.
The pair then further completed a three-day cycle on Friday and is currently in level 3. This drop has signaled a possible reversal of the trend.
Current Week in Focus
We expect the price to reverse on EUR/USD, and possibly reset when it gets to the 200 Exponential Moving Average due to the upcoming high-impact news during the week.
We've already identified the peak formation low of the week. The 5/13 Exponential Moving Average has crossed over showing a peak formation confirmation.
The 13/50 Exponential Moving Average has also crossed over showing a possible peak lock. Do not forget that news can mess up a trade setup.
TDI Subgraph
TDI has not shown a clear confirmation of the possible reversal of the trend. Swing traders take note.
Conclusion
Let us know in the comment box below your expectations based on the economic data and the bank rate cut. You can also check our previous post on EUR/USD analysis.
On July 24th, 2024 the Bank of Canada (BOC) reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
Compared to other Central Banks' rates which are the Federal Reserve's 5.50% (USD), Reserve Bank of England's (BOE) 5.00% (GBP), Bank of Canada's (BOC) 4.50% (CAD), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) 4.35% (AUD), European Central Bank (ECB) 4.25% (EUR), Swiss National Bank (SNB) 1.25% (CHF), Bank of Japan (BOJ) <0.25% respectively.
We are expecting Bank of Canada policy rates to cut further to 4.25% by September 4th, 2024, according to the report. This report would attract more investors and strengthen CAD.
- US Employment reports (jobless claim, ADP and NFP)
Jerome Powell broke the news at Jackson Hole last week, which resulted in a rate cut saying, "inflation had declined significantly" and secondly, that "the labor market is no longer overheated".
Although, traders always see this report as a lagging indicator.
Unemployed people are a good signal to the overall economic health, with the reason that consumer spending corresponds with the labor market circumstances.
Traders should watch employment figures this week, especially the non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Meanwhile, there could be a notable drop in the NFP figure and also rising unemployment, USD bears take note. There is also a lineup of job openings, cuts, ISM PMIs, ADP employment, and unemployment claims data.
Technical Analysis
- EUR/USD
EUR/USD posed a peak reset on Monday last week and confirmed its mid-week reversal on Wednesday.
The pair then further completed a three-day cycle on Friday and is currently in level 3. This drop has signaled a possible reversal of the trend.
Current Week in Focus
We expect the price to reverse on EUR/USD, and possibly reset when it gets to the 200 Exponential Moving Average due to the upcoming high-impact news during the week.
We've already identified the peak formation low of the week. The 5/13 Exponential Moving Average has crossed over showing a peak formation confirmation.
The 13/50 Exponential Moving Average has also crossed over showing a possible peak lock. Do not forget that news can mess up a trade setup.
Current Week in Focus
TDI Subgraph
TDI has not shown a clear confirmation of the possible reversal of the trend. Swing traders take note.
Conclusion
Let us know in the comment box below your expectations based on the economic data and the bank rate cut. You can also check our previous post on EUR/USD analysis.
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